In the dynamic realm of the pharmaceutical industry, where the drive for improved patient outcomes meets the reality of a global market, understanding and forecasting demand is key. Unibest has developed a step-by-step approach to calculating the market potential for specific pharmaceuticals. In this blog, we provide insights into the market landscape for Ubrogepant (Ubrelvy) – a calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor antagonist indicated for the acute treatment of migraines in adults.

An Overview of Migraines and Ubrogepant

Migraines, characterized by severe headaches often accompanied by nausea, vomiting, and extreme sensitivity to light and sound, inflict significant pain on sufferers, typically lasting between 2-72 hours. The onset of this debilitating condition is preceded by symptoms such as fatigue, which may start up to 2 days before the headache begins and can persist after the pain has subsided. Some people experience multiple migraines per week, while others have fewer episodes.

This is where Ubrogepant steps in, providing acute treatment with or without aura in adult patients.

Graph showing the global prevalence of migraine between 1990 and 2019. Steiner, T. J. & Stovner, L. J. Global epidemiology of migraine and its implications for public health and health policy. Nat Rev Neurol 19, 109–117 (2023).

Projected Market Demand for Ubrogepant

To assess the need for Ubrogepant in combating migraines, we first consider the worldwide prevalence of this condition. Globally, migraines affect 14-15% of the population, and with a forecasted global population of 8,045,311,447 in mid-2023, of which approximately 67% are adults, we estimate a target population migraine adults of 781,602,007.

Amongst this group, around 27.9% receive treatment for migraines, giving us approximately 218,066,90 patients seeking migraine relief. Following trends from 2020, we can anticipate that about 10% of these patients will seek treatment with CGRPs mAB (such as Erenumab, Galcanezumab, Fremanezumab and Eptinezumab), -gepants, and -ditans in 2023. Of these, roughly 50% are likely to prefer -gepants and ditans, amounting to about 10,903,348 patients.

Total number of 30-day adjusted migraine prescription fill. Nguyen, J. L. et al. Trends in utilization and costs of migraine medications, 2017–2020. J Headache Pain 23, 111 (2022).

In 2019, CGRPs mAB had already gained 3.4% of total prescription fills. By the end of 2019, the first oral pills for -gepants (Urbogepant) arrived on the scene and quickly rose to account for 6.4% of total fills (CGRPs mAB, -gepants, and -ditans). As CGRPs mAB is used for preventitive treatment rather than acute relief, we forecast around half of the fills to be attributed to -gepants and -ditans.

As far as Ubrogepant is concerned, an analysis of patient reviews in online forums (Drugs.com - Prescription Drug Information) shows that it holds approximately a 50% share of the market amongst two approved oral -gepants, with similar numbers of reviews for Ubrogepant (~445) and Rimegepant (~444), while -ditans such as Lasmiditan only got 47 reviews. Consequently, we can expect around 5,451,674 patients globally to turn to Ubrogepant as their treatment of choice.

Estimating Revenue

From a revenue perspective, with the number of monthly migraine attack days often ranging between 1 and 15 per patient and a maximum of 8 Ubrogepant pills recommended, we calculate a monthly Ubrogepant pill demand between 5,451,674 and 43,613,392 pills. With an average price of USD 104.56 per pill, the projected annual global revenue for Ubrogepant ranges from 570,027,033 USD to 4,560,216,268 USD (the unpredictability is mostly due to the uncertainty of the number of pills taken per month).

Ubrogepant's Market Performance: AbbVie's Success Story

As we delve further into the promise of Ubrogepant as a high-demand migraine treatment drug, it's worth noting its impressive track record thus far. According to the annual reports from AbbVie, Ubrogepant has generated significant revenues for the company.

In 2020, Ubrogepant secured 125 million USD in revenue. This figure dramatically increased to 552 million USD in 2021, showcasing a sharp uptake and wider market acceptance of Ubrogepant as a potent treatment for migraines. By 2022, Ubrogepant's revenues reached 680 million USD, further underscoring its commercial potential and value proposition within the swift pace of the global pharmaceutical industry.

Such growth trajectory not only highlights the need and acceptance of Ubrogepant but also provides a base for market forecasts, empowering procurement managers to make informed decisions for their supply chain management.

Demand for Ubrogepant Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient

When translating these numbers into demand for active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), one has to note that a typical Ubrogepant dosage of 50 mg will usually suffice. Therefore, the annual Ubrogepant API demand is forecasted to be between 272.58 KG and 2180.67 KG (again, the unpredictability is mostly due to the uncertainty of the number of pills taken per month).

For global pharmaceutical companies seeking to ensure drug pipeline development strategies and supply chain robustness, these estimates are invaluable. Unibest is committed to providing cutting-edge solutions that meet your needs as a strategic partner.

At Unibest, we constantly strive to enhance market-aware strategies, empowering us to serve our partners more efficiently and help people live healthier, longer lives using technological advances. Join us on this rewarding journey!

References

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/migraine/

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/headache-disorders

https://www.medpagetoday.com/meetingcoverage/ahs/87135

https://www.drugs.com/condition/migraine.html?page_all=1

https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/ubrelvy

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

https://investors.abbvie.com/sec-filings?field_nir_sec_form_group_target_id%5B%5D=471&field_nir_sec_date_filed_value=#views-exposed-form-widget-sec-filings-table

Steiner, T. J. & Stovner, L. J. Global epidemiology of migraine and its implications for public health and health policy. Nat Rev Neurol 19, 109–117 (2023).

Nguyen, J. L. et al. Trends in utilization and costs of migraine medications, 2017–2020. J Headache Pain 23, 111 (2022).